June 22, 2009

Cambodia consider new laws for foreign property investors

For those who managed to avoid losing their shirt in the Spanish property market, or investing in Dubai’s real estate bubble, another possibility seems to be floating on the horizon - maybe. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen on Friday urged the Ministry of Land Management, Urban Planning and Construction to expedite the drafting of new rules that would permit foreign ownership of property in Cambodia.

In a press release issued by the Council of Ministers, Hun Sen said implementation of the rules would lead to an influx of foreign capital investment in the real estate and other sectors.

“The law will make foreigners feel confident in investing in other sectors in Cambodia,” he said.

In an interview Sunday, Sung Bonna, CEO of Bonna Realty Group and president of the National Valuers Association of Cambodia, said he welcomed the premier’s comments, calling them “a highly valued answer to help the real estate industry survive”.

He added, “Samdech [Hun Sen] made a good decision with this law. This law is a positive law that will benefit the country’s economy.”

The NVA is to meet today with a working group of government officials and private sector representatives to give input on the new rules. Existing rules prohibit foreigners from owning property, which supporters say prevents speculation and price volatility. The proposed changes would allow for foreign ownership of houses, apartments and condominiums above the ground floor. Foreigners would also be able to inherit property. This would be a substantial turn around and I suspect the impact of the global economic crisis is spurring this suggestion.

Either way - a potential new market looks about to open up for those interested in investing in property overseas .

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May 15, 2009

Property Investing News Roundup

London townhouse sold for huge discount; the UK, Hong Kong, Dubai and Calgary  markets have bottomed out; Luxury resort in the Bahamas goes broke; Irish property prices have fallen 52 percent and a British Member of Parliament forgets he paid his mortgage off.

Volatility still rules the property markets - although when the term “volatility,” started to mean “dropping prices,” remains a mystery. A few interesting reports from the property investing world make disturbing reading for some markets - particularly some of the emerging markets.

  • A London townhouse was recently sold for the biggest discount on record. Luxury property
  • Just a few seconds later, Hamptons international call the bottom of the UK housing market, because 130 buyers from the Middle East came a-looking. mortgage strategy
  • Speaking of the bottom of the housing market, the Calgary Herald is tentatively calling the bottom of the Calgary market also. Calgary Herald
  • Same story in Hong Kong apparently. Prices will not fall any more they say. Bloomberg
  • Dubai has also bottomed out and is showing “early signs of renewed confidence,” according to Landmark advisory. Arabian Business
  • This is 20 days into said quarter, and a few days earlier the same source revealed that residential rental prices have fallen off a cliff and the number of transactions in Q1 2009 was 60% down from the previous year. Arabian Business
  • Somewhat at odds with these bottom callers, The Four seasons luxury resort Great Exhuma, Bahamas has gone broke and will close. Radio Jamaica
  • A British MP becomes the first person in history to forget he had paid off his mortgage. the dailymash
  • “Secret” house price data reveals that property prices in Dublin have fallen 52% since 2007. Irish Times

Make of these headlines what you will. Most of the newspapers have been calling the bottom of the market since the downturn began so………

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April 27, 2009

Property Prices Around the World

Property prices around the world continue to decline as the financial crisis continues its way through the system. I don’t think anyone is under any illusions any more that we have not yet reached bottom. These are some headlines, although where bottom is is becoming more and more difficult to predict. With governments in disarray and it becoming clear that the banks have continued to disguise their true losses - even now. Available credit still presents a problem, and mortgage approvals are still extremely low.

Home prices in Ireland fell 1.1% in March, bringing prices down below 2004 levels.

Prices fell 3.1 percent in the first quarter and are down 10 percent from a year earlier, according to an index published today by Irish Life & Permanent. The average house price is now €253,546, the lowest since November 2004. The Independent

UK mortgage approvals fell 25.3% in the last year.

Hopes of a revival in Britain’s battered housing market were undermined today by data showing the number of mortgages approved for house purchase fell by 25.3 per cent in the 12 months to March. Figures from the British Bankers Association (BBA) showed 26,097 mortgages were approved in March, down from 34,920 a year ago. The Times

Property prices in Singapore fell for the third consecutive quarter. Developers are scrambling to bring their capital positions up to scratch. Singapore is facing the worst recession on record and even with stronger positions, future earnings are very much in doubt.

As property prices in Singapore continue to tumble, one of the country’s biggest developers posted disappointing earnings while another said it will raise capital to protect itself against the downturn. CapitaLand Ltd., Southeast Asia’s largest developer by market capitalization, reported first-quarter net profit of 42.9 million Singapore dollars (US$28.8 million), an 83% fall from S$247.5 million a year earlier, when the company recorded divestment gains of S$141.4 million. Revenue for the period fell 23% to S$487 million from S$631.3 million. Wall Street Journal

Property prices in Qatar have fallen a massive 70% since September last year.

Real estate prices in Qatar have retreated by 40 per cent to 70 per cent from their levels before the outbreak of the financial crisis in September 2008, said a recent survey. A state of stagnation and anticipation prevails, the survey showed. Business 24/7

Much the same as Dubai, the Qatar market has all but collapsed. Real estate prices in Dubai have fallen a similar amount and Deyaar is setting up a distressed property fund. Deyaar are now predicting no recovery for 3-4 years in Dubai which is rather at odds with the continuing flow of press releases stating a recovery this year.

Prices in Bulgaria are also declining and have reached 2006/2007 levels.

A recent report suggested that prices for property in Bulgaria had now dropped to the same level as it was back in 2007. There are no official statistics for this and the noticeable drop is simply based on listed selling prices between 2006 and 2007 and the fact that sale transactions have fallen drastically towards the end of 2008 and in the first few months of 2009. Bulgarian property

This is overly optimistic I feel, given that listed prices and sale prices often bear little relation to each other and there are now a fairly large number of properties for sale in Bulgaria on our free listing site. As an example, a plot of land overlooking the sea is only 35 euros a square meter.

Even Greenwich is not Immune - with a single property being offered at a 50 million dollar discount.

By any stretch of the imagination, fifty million dollars is a lot of money, but that is the price reduction on this Manor house in Greenwich, Conn.The house was originally listed at $125 million but has now been reduced to $75 million in what has to be the biggest discount in the history of luxury real estate discounts, putting even Donald Trump’s Florida mansion discount to shame (reduced by $25 million last May.) Luxury property

Tourist number continue to fall to Lanzarote, Spain, France and other tourist hotspots, bank financing is still scarce, and even the FNAIM have admitted property prices fell on the Cote D’Azur on the French Riviera. Tourist numbers to Paris and the Riviera are down 20% for February, and expected to decline more quickly in March and April and one of France’s largest banks, Society Generale is currently denying rumors that it will be forced to write off another E10 billion this year.France 24

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March 25, 2009

Property Crash Hot Spots - London Dubai and Hong Kong

The Citi Private Bank report commissioned by Knight Frank shows that the largest drops in residential property prices were in Hong Kong (-26.8%), the Home Counties (-19.4%), London (-16.9%) and Dubai (-19.1%).

But the fall in the fourth quarter was insufficient to completely wipe out annual property price gains in three cities: Moscow (+13.1%), Shanghai (+5.2%) and also Dubai (+10.8%). Aside from Dubai the other property markets that slumped in the fourth quarter were all down for the year: Hong Kong (-24.5%), Home Counties (-10.2%) and London (-9.4%), which suggests we have a lot further to fall. Considering most of the banks have posted losses that have canceled out the last ten year’s profits we should expect property prices to follow this model.

The report asks “whether the downturn is leading to a simple repricing of assets that had become overvalued through the late boom period, or whether something more fundamental has occurred in the global economy that will mean prime market pricing will be further suppressed and take a long time to recover.”

Knight Frank says the evidence from London’s suggests a simple repricing, now aided by the devaluation of sterling. By early 2009, the 30 per cent discounts being offered triggered a rally in market activity and allied to a 20 per cent decline in sterling against the major world currencies, offered the potential of savings up to 50 per cent on peak prices for international buyers. This of course completely ignores the fact that many international buyers are facing similar issues in the own countries and many of the world’s “richest” are suffering massive losses. Russia’s richest woman, coincidentally a property developer Yelena Baturina has just gone cap in hand to the Russian government for a $1.3 billion bailout.

It seems the only group suggesting we are about to see the end of the correction are the estate agents. This sort of argument suggests buyers magically appear out of the woodwork with oodles of spare cash - because one thing is for certain - the banks are in no position to lend willy-nilly to property speculators - at least for the next few years.

The 1991-2 slump in London property was followed by 4 years of stagnation and the global financial recession this year is an even worse climate for property sales. The world’s financial system destroyed $50 trillion of investment wealth last year, and goodness knows the level of losses they are likely to announce this year. Do I hear $300 trillion?

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