These are a few recent headlines and predictions about when the real estate market will bottom out. Of course, there are a select few who have been calling the bottom for some time now. Oddly enough, these tend to be real estate agents and newspaper columns. Speaking of newspaper columns, we are sad to see the end of “Raising the Roof,” the erstwhile International Herald Tribune and more recently, New York Times’ very own property blog. Kevin Brass will continue to write the print edition property column for the NYT, but the online version is no more. Honestly - this was one of the few international newspaper property blogs worth reading, and I don’t think I ever once saw a “We have reached bottom, Buy Now!” headline - which may be why it has gone the way of all things? Newspaper advertising is drying up faster than the 120% mortgages did.

Back to the meat of the matter:

House prices rise by 1.2%, says Nationwide. House prices staged a tentative recovery in May as the cost of the average British home unexpectedly rose by 1.2 per cent, in its strongest monthly gain for 19 months, according to figures from the Nationwide Building Society. The Times I wouldn’t get too excited about a UK recovery just yet - we have been watching median prices rise in a number of markets for the last two years as sales volumes dry up and the only stock moving is heavily discounted, more expensive properties. Eventually sellers drop their prices enough to sell in the lower end and median prices come into line with lower sales volumes.

Bernanke Bid to Lift Housing Scuttled by Rising Rates, Defaults. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s efforts to bring down borrowing costs to revive the housing market and help the economy are stalling. Mortgage rates are almost back to where they were in March before the 30-year rate fell to a record and sparked a refinancing boom. Mortgage delinquencies rose to a record 9.12 percent of U.S. home loans and house prices dropped the most on record in the first quarter, industry reports show. Bloomberg. No great surprises here - if anyone seriously expected the low interest rates to be passed on to the end consumer, they need their head examined. 12% next year anyone?

Spanish newspaper, El Pais was calling the bottom of the Spanish property downturn just last week after a miniscule rise in the amount of mortgages written in Spain. Once again, nothing worth getting t0o excited about here. Move along, just another desperate attempt by a newspaper to halt the inevitable slide. On a year-to-year basis new mortgage approvals have fallen for 21 months without a break, and residential mortgage approvals in the first quarter of this year are 36% lower than the same period last year. The value of the average residential mortgage signed in March was down 16% to 119,067 Euros, 3.7% lower than in February, and interest rates are now up to 5.1%. Spanish property insight

Kuwait real estate prices decline 50%. Prices of real-estate properties namely the housing units have fallen by 50 percent, the Commerce Undersecretary announced on Monday. Rashid Al-Tabtabaei, in a statement to journalists after inaugurating the 22nd Real-Estate and Investment Fair, indicated the prices of properties vary from region to another with regard of the location of the plot, nature of the region and the services available. Economic sectors, namely the real-estate, the finance, the tourism and the oil, in Kuwait and other countries, have been affected with fallouts of the international financial crisis. Arab Times

Nicaragua Real Estate Sales Fall 35 Percent. Property sales in Nicaragua have fallen by up to 35% in the last year with second home investors deserting the emerging real estate market. The market peaked in early 2008, according to Brooke Rundle, a broker with Coldwell Banker Nicaragua. She estimated that the number of transactions has decreased 30 to 35% since. Nuwire. Turns out this is not actually the case because property sales in Nicaragua have been declining since 2006, which is not exactly a shock either - seeing as most buyers in Nicaragua are American real estate investors.

Both the recent S&P Case Schiller and Knight Frank global house price index show prices steadily falling in all but a few markets with no end in sight as yet. There are a few interesting properties bouncing around at the moment though - a British couple are selling their English Farmhouse - private plane included. Luxury property

Cuba the next big property investment destination? How badly will Panama Crash? How much commercial property will default this year? How far will prices fall on the Cote D’Azur? And more importantly - are we there yet?

The current crop of news reports from around the world raises more questions than answers. As prices around the world continue on their downward trend the big one is - are we at bottom yet? To listen to many of the newspapers and estate agencies - we reached bottom last week/last month/yesterday/tomorrow.  There is a word for this and you know what the word is. Having said that, there will be opportunities for those with cash or financing in place - when exactly is anyone’s guess - our guess is end 2010.

One question worth asking is whether the recent friendly overtones by Mr. Obama to Cuba make it worth a look as a real estate investment. Obviously there will be risks involved, but - that is where the big money is.

Some time ago (November 2007), we suggested that Panama real estate was going to crash hard, and got out while the going was good. 18 months later, Panama’s condo market is in “complete meltdown,” according to The New York Times. Good to get it right occasionally. The amount of condos for sale in Panama keeps rising.

According to the Financial Times, there is more than £76 billion in commercial property debt that needs refinancing over the next two years and financing is still hard to come by. With the recession deepening, returns are not what they used to be and no bank in it’s right mind is going to touch a loan on property that has already fallen 40% in value. We expect a lot of commercial property defaults this year, which should depress prices even further. The first of many British property tycoons, Simon Halabi,  is on the brink already.

Shock, horror! Property prices are falling on the Cote D’Azur in France. We have also been calling that one for some time against the backdrop of agents claiming the French Riviera is immune. Anyone who buys this line is out of their mind. Nowhere is immune and according to the FNAIM, pices dropped 6% in the first 3 months of 2009, and sales are down 25%. The Guardian. This does compare favorably to the falls in Paris where sales were down 47% year on year, following a poor 2008.

So, in answer to the question, “Are we there yet?” - Not by a long shot.

Illegally built houses being demolished in Tenerife

One thing about the global downturn that could be considered positive is the amount of scams and cons coming to light, and the small property investor has certainly been prey to many. In a booming economy, many of these were written off and the injured parties pleas for assistance were ignored.

But several groups of small investors are fighting back. The problem appears to be all over the world. The more tha market was booming, the more the con men took advantage of ignorant investors with an eye on the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. We can all see the pot of gold vanishing into the bottomless pit of the global banks losses and a backlash around the world is happening, both against the multimillion pound/dollar payoffs of the bank executives and the obvious scammers in the property investment world.

If you have been conned, scammed or are discovering that the small print in your contract does not cover you as well as you were persuaded it was, here is some news and a few resources to help you.

Small investors in the Trump resort Baja, which has been canceled are suing the developer “Irongate,” which has been withdrawing monies from an escrow account with no intention of completing the building.

Many of Dubai’s developers are showing their true colors and “screwing the small investors to the wall,” would not be overstating things. There are a number of groups around where a number of investors are banding together in an effort to obtain fair treatment. Hydra investors have a group here - Hydra Facebook group. Beware the facebook groups run by developers - you will be able to tell the difference - they are the ones that say Dubai is not having a financial crisis.

Two groups of investors are pressuring RERA in Dubai: The Emaar Investor Group and the Dubai Property Investors Group, unfortunately I have not yet been able to find contact details for either of these. Please leave me a comment if you have one.

The Cypriot government is being pressured to change the law to prevent unscrupulous developers in Cyprus from holding on to titles of property purchased and using the title as collateral.

Spain. What to say about Spain? What a mess ! With unemployment expected to reach 17-21% over the next two years, minor politicians being arrested for corruption all over, most sellers in denial and illegal building scams all over the news, it is hard to be positive about Spain at the moment. Buildings are being demolished all along the coast.  I am sure there are or will soon be some bargains to be had for the small property investors in Spain, but for now, this is a good blog to read - Costa Del Sol property blog. There are a number of discussion groups here.

Vallarta Beach

Upon retiring fourteen years ago, we spent a great deal of time traveling the world in search for the perfect retirement haven. Eleven years ago we selected Puerto Vallarta, Mexico as the location for our main retirement residence.

Vallarta, located on the Mexican Riviera and only two to four hours from most major cities in the US, offers all of the modern day conveniences, numerous activities for retirees, fine dining and social life, and perfect weather for almost eight months of the year, from October through May. During those months, the average daily temperature is 73*F with an average monthly rainfall of less than 0.4 inches of rain; in other words, more than 97% of the days are absolutely ideal for golfing, tennis, fishing, or what ever outdoor activity interests you.

The weather in Vallarta during the summer months of June through September is similar to that of Houston, Texas with high temperatures during the daytime and evening showers almost every other night. Due to the oppressive tropical summers, most of the retirees use this time period for travel or visiting their friends and families back in the States or Canada. More on Puerto Vallarta & Lake Tahoe - The Best of Both Worlds?