We all know our government thinks we are stupid - that almost goes without saying, but the recent quietly released and not-talked-about figures from the Land Registry bear closer inspection than the government press release farms (newspapers) have given. Quite honestly - how any one makes an informed decision based on the misinformation and garbage being spouted is beyond me.
But one figure does not lie - the Land Registry sales volumes. Now - while house prices in the UK may have eked up slightly - this is based on dismal sales volumes of just 34,000 units in January. Admittedly - not quite as bad as last year, but well below average and a staggering drop of 40,000 units from December and no where near enough data to compile a valuation.
But the recent headlines are confusing to say the least.
UK Housing market sees Spring Bounce! says RTT
The U.K housing market has been buoyed by spring optimism, with survey data showing both housing prices and sales levels rising during April. Meanwhile, an indicator of sales in the highstreet declined during April mainly due to technical factors. RTT
Housing market worst in UK as prices slump, says the Belfast Telegraph
House prices in Northern Ireland remain the worst performing in the UK, according to new data out today. The latest research from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) also shows that almost a third of respondents reported a slump in prices in the last three months. Belfast Telegraph
Here is the Land Registry chart for the last few years, and the obvious drop in sales volumes means what exactly? Who knows? The ECB has just agreed to create a trillion Euros out of thin air, the BoE continues to create pounds from the same place and I suspect everyone has lost count of how many new dollars the Fed has majicked up for the American taxpayer to produce. The only thing certain is - it is a good time to buy if you have cash in your pocket and this cannot go on indefinitely. Place your bets!
A tsunami is imminent for the commercial real estate (CRE) market, one not comprised of water but of debt, according to Tony Wood, commercial real estate expert and author of the new book The Commercial Real Estate Tsunami.
The Commercial Real Estate Crisis
• An unprecedented wave of commercial debt loans—about $1.4 trillion—will reach the end of their terms between 2010 through 2014.
• Nearly half are at present “under water,” that is, the borrower owes more than the underlying property is currently worth.
• About two-thirds of the estimated $700 billion in securitized (CMBS) loans will not qualify for refinancing.
• Commercial property values have fallen more than 40 percent since the beginning of 2007. Banks are not adequately protecting themselves against potential losses, setting aside only 38 cents of every dollar for bad loans. As a result of the commercial real estate defaults that lie ahead, more than 700 banks could possibly fail. 3,000 community banks are already at risk of insolvency due to their CRE debt exposure
• CRE Vacancy Rates are at historically high levels, ranging from 8 percent for multifamily housing to 20 percent for office buildings, and rents have declined 40 percent since the beginning of 2007.
How to Mitigate the Impact
For owners, Tony suggests requesting workouts from their lenders. Lenders are becoming more willing to listen to these requests and are encouraged by the Fed to work with borrowers on their distressed situations. Owners also need to be more vigilant and attentive landlords in order to increase tenant retention.
For potential buyers, due diligence is of the upmost importance. In purchasing distressed or REO property, the fundamental discount must correlate to the resolution of the issues the property presents in order to mitigate risk.
For CRE brokers, the questions become how do you sell when there are no sales occurring and who do you represent when there is no one in the market? During this drag period, brokers should focus on recessionary products that match the desire to cut costs, restructure, and navigate uncertainty. According to Tony, winners in this climate will focus on cost saving services such as tax appeal, tax segregation, and expense management service; lease restructuring that blends and extends the current lease rate; lease termination or surrender; and debt or equity restructure or surrender.
Buying opportunities will come as this part of the cycle levels out from the wave of foreclosed CRE properties flooding the market, the question is when will this market cycle begin to stabilize? Many lenders have delayed the inevitable with extend and pretend methodologies as the wave of debt maturities and increasing defaults continue to rise. The current cycle will begin to see a “bottoming out” once there is significant job creation and increases in demand for commercial real estate use. Until then efforts must be made to refinance or otherwise “workout” the CRE debt that qualifies while lenders are encouraged to expedite the foreclose of CRE debt that requires deposition.
Congressional concern and proposals for new legislation is ongoing but more needs to be done—The Real Estate Roundtable has some great approaches which include tax reforms to benefit owners and others that would entice foreign investors back into the US CRE markets, Tony also supports a reduction or temporary elimination of the Capital Gains Tax on CRE investment to stimulate the market back into existence.
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The Commercial Real Estate Tsunami: A Survival Guide for Lenders, Owners, Buyers, and Brokers (Wiley Finance) $49.95 An in-depth look at why a commercial real estate collapse is inevitable, and how to survive itThe Commercial Real Estate Tsunami is the first book to address the phenomenon of the pending wave of commercial debt maturities coming due in the next five years, and the impact those maturities will have on the commercial real estate markets when combined with the historic economic crisis the world is e... |
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Real Estate Tsunami Survivor's Guide: Prospering in Today's Financial Storm $24.99 Real Estate Tsunami Survivor's Guide is the definitive analysis on the causes of the commercial real estate bubble of 2005-2007 and the subsequent Great Debt Implosion. Written in plain language by Peter Ingersoll, who has over twenty-five years of professional experience in commercial real estate, it outlines how to safely approach investing in commercial real estate in the current distressed mar... |
An interesting release from General Growth Properties suggests the shake up in the property investment sector may be getting even shakier - it that was possible. It is really becoming difficult to sift through the dross and mis-information being touted, but this is a substantial move and may well see a shift in the Chicago investment properties market. But - we have given up guessing the future until things settle down. Any time now......
General Growth Properties, Inc. (NYSE: GGP) announced today that it will seek Bankruptcy Court approval of bidding procedures and compensation for the financial commitments to be provided pursuant to a revised $6.55 billion equity investment and $2 billion capital backstop offer from Brookfield Asset Management, Pershing Square Capital Management and Fairholme Funds. The Company will continue to consider competitive proposals and expects to select its plan for emergence from bankruptcy in early July.
"We are very pleased to recommend the Brookfield-led proposal as the transaction that offers the best opportunity at this time to maximize long-term value for stockholders while ensuring full payment to creditors," said Adam Metz, Chief Executive Officer of GGP. "With the revised proposal, we have now secured commitments for all financing needed to emerge from bankruptcy. The Brookfield-led proposal also allows the Company to continue its process to solicit higher and better offers pursuant to the bid procedures to be approved by the Bankruptcy Court."
The Official Committee of General Growth's Equity Committee supports the revised Brookfield-led proposal and the relief requested in the motion. The investment offer remains subject to higher and better offers pursuant to a bidding process that is subject to approval by the Bankruptcy Court.
Terms of the Revised Brookfield-led Proposal
Under the terms of the amended agreements, the Company expects to emerge from Chapter 11 as two separate companies: General Growth Properties ("New GGP"), which will own traditional shopping mall properties, and General Growth Opportunities ("GGO"), which will own a diverse portfolio of assets with attractive longer-term growth prospects. The investors would commit $6.3 billion of new equity capital at a value of $10.00 per share for New GGP and $250 million to backstop a rights offering for GGO at $5.00 per share to facilitate GGP's emergence from bankruptcy.
The principal changes from the original proposal submitted by the Brookfield-led investors include:
• The investors have agreed to backstop an additional $2.0 billion of capital to be raised at closing, including $1.5 billion of debt and a $500 million equity rights offering;
• The interim warrants to be issued to the investment parties as part of the transaction will vest over time rather than immediately as follows:
o 40% upon Bankruptcy Court approval
o 20% on July 12
o Remainder would continue to vest pro rata through expiration of commitment;
• The permanent warrants will include 120 million 7-year warrants for reorganized GGP stock at a strike price of $10.50 and 80 million 7-year warrants for GGO at a strike price of $5.00; and
• Brookfield has agreed to enter into a strategic relationship agreement to use GGP as its primary platform for any regional mall opportunities it or its affiliates pursue in North America;
• Several closing conditions were eliminated or made less restrictive.
"We are pleased to reach this agreement with Brookfield, Pershing Square and Fairholme and view this as a critical step to create long-term value for the Company and its stockholders," said Thomas H. Nolan, Jr., President and Chief Operating Officer of GGP. "Combined with the announcement last week that GGP has received approval to restructure substantially all of its secured mortgage indebtedness, we are well on our way to emerging from bankruptcy by the fall and beginning the next successful chapter for GGP and GGO."
UBS Investment Bank and Miller Buckfire & Co., LLC served as financial advisors to General Growth Properties, and Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP acted as legal counsel to the company.
ABOUT GGP
GGP currently has ownership interest in or management responsibility for more than 200 regional shopping malls in 43 states, as well as ownership in planned community developments and commercial office buildings. The Company’s portfolio totals approximately 200 million square feet of retail space and includes over 24,000 retail stores nationwide. The Company’s common stock is traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol GGP.
British tourist arrivals leapt by just over 14% last month on the popular holiday island of Lanzarote. News that will make welcome reading for the many overseas owners of apartments and villas in Lanzarote. As the UK is the islands largest and most important market place – accounting for around 50% of all foreign visitor arrivals.
According to the latest figures just released by The Canarian Institute of Statistics (ISTAC) the number of British tourists visiting Lanzarote, the third most popular island in the archipelago, jumped by 14% last month. Rising from 66,239 arrivals in March 2009 to 75,407arrivals last month. Providing a welcome filip for the islands tourist industry as it slowly pulls out of recession.
Encouragingly this figure is also close to March 2008 pre-crisis visitor levels – when a total of 82,940 British tourists enjoyed holidays in Lanzarote. However the news isn’t all good – as the revival in total forein visitor numbers remains sluggish, whilst other key markets such as Germany and Eire have both recorded sharp declines.
Overall arrivals picked up by 3.6% in March – following on from a 3% positive bounce in Fenarury. But these numbers are still some 14% short of the volume of passengers that visited Lanzarote during March 2008. When a total of 169,065 visitors touched down at Arrecife airport on flights to Lanzarote.
Worringly arrivals from key markets other than the UK fell markedly last month too. As the number of German tourists – Lanzarote second largest visitor source - dropped by 14%. In spite of the fact that island tourist authorities have conducted a number of high profile marketing campaigns in that country over recent months. In truth German tourist numbers have been falling here year on year since the 1990´s – and are down by 28% versus pre-crisis March 2008 levels.
Eire is Lanzarote´s third largest market and arrival figures there have been equally disapointing. As Irish tourist numbers fell by 24% last month versus March 2009. And by a huge 40% versus March 2008. Suggesting that the weak Irish eonomy is now having a real dampening effect on overseas holiday bookings.
The impact of these latest figures on the Lanzarote property market remains hard to gauge – but the British have long benn the key driving force here and enquiries and leads are un the up so far this year, according to local estate agents and leading island property portals.
An interesting report released by Coldwell Banker points to some increase in activity on the real estate sector amongst that under-rated group - singles. Although I remain firmly convinced we are nowhere near a recovery phase yet - let's be honest - the US banks are sitting on twenty-two million foreclosure properties and merely hanging on to them to keep prices inflated - this is an interesting report:
With low home prices, interest rates and government tax incentives for first-time home buyers, Coldwell Banker Real Estate brokers and agents are seeing an influx of singles walking through the door. For greater insight into this demographic, Coldwell Banker Real Estate conducted a national online survey of more than 1,000 single homeowners in April 2010 on what factors played into their decision to purchase a home. While conventional wisdom may be that most singles are buying bachelor or bachelorette pads downtown, surprisingly, Coldwell Banker found that the majority of single homeowners (52 percent) it surveyed chose suburbia over urban or rural areas.
“We are finding the current housing environment to be the ideal marketplace for many people who may have never considered buying a home before, such as singles and other first-time buyers,” said Diann Patton, the Coldwell Banker Real Estate consumer specialist. “They can afford much more house for their money than they may have been able to in previous years. Many are recognizing that a mortgage payment on a house can actually be the same or less than what they would spend on rent.”
According to the Coldwell Banker Real Estate survey, over half (53 percent) of single homeowners reported that they purchased a home because it was more cost effective than renting in their area. However, more than just financial analysis contributed to their decision. The desire for independence played a role for more than one-third of single homeowners (35 percent) according to the same survey.
“Owning a home is such a monumental way to achieve independence,” said Patton. “It’s inspiring to see so many individuals accomplish this life goal.”
Below are additional key findings from the April 2010 Coldwell Banker Real Estate single homeowner survey:
Finding good deals is important, but so are modern amenities and outside space.
68 percent of single homeowners purchased a home that was below their price range, rather than the most expensive home they could afford.
Meanwhile, modernized home updates and appliances and having a yard and outside space were rated as the most desirable features in a home over lesser considerations like space for entertaining.
Some may have flown the coop, but others get help from their parents.
Of the 13 percent of single homeowners who own their home jointly with another person, almost half (49 percent) made the purchase with their parents.
Singles hunt for homes that are close to work and their family.
Fifty-five percent have less than a 30-minute commute to their office or work from home, and 40 percent live less than 30 minutes or even in the same neighborhood as their parents or extended family. In fact, an additional 12 percent live with at least one family member
Single women may be more likely to think of growing their family than single men.
More single women (27 percent) said that the number of bedrooms was the most desirable feature in a home, than did men (18 percent).
Single and ready to … bargain hunt.
Singles don’t shy away from foreclosures – especially single men. Thirty-eight percent would currently consider purchasing a foreclosed / short sale home, compared to 29 percent of single women. Coldwell Banker
Well, the amount of foreclosed property in Las Vegas continues to increase. I spoke to a lady over the weekend who had been foreclosed upon in Lake Las Vegas and she was not a happy bunny. Now - Lake Las vegas is a bit of an anomaly in that it is even more artificial than Las Vegas itself.
Lake Las Vegas is a community built about 17 miles out of town, away from the strip and was originally sold as high end properties with an artificial lake in the middle of the desert. Just a few years on and the lake is leaking, at least 35% of the properties there are already in foreclose; the remainder are worth less than half the price paid and - shock horror - the Lake Las Vegas Ritz-Carlton will close next month. As far as I know - this is the first Ritz-Carlton to close - ever.
So - things not looking too hot for Lake Las Vegas right now. even at fire sale prices I would be extremely wary of buying anything there. The Spanish foreclosure situation is not looking much better and the number of repossessed property in Spain is also continuing to rise. Something has to give soon.
Still - Greece has now been bailed out, so perhaps Spain will be next?
The number of foreign tourists visiting the holiday island of Lanzarote rose by just over 3% during February. According to figures just released by ISTAC, the Canarian Institute of Statistics. The third month in a row when visitor numbers have risen – although they are still some way short of recovering to pre-crisis 2008 levels.
Lanzarote´s tourist industry continued to show tentative signs of revovery last month as the popular holiday island welcomed a total of 122,864 foreign visitors – an increase of 3.01% versus February 2009 figures. With occupancy levels in Lanzarote hotels and apartment complexes also rising by just over 5%. However these figures still fall some way short of the visitor levels recorded during 2008, prior to the impact of the economic crisis. When a total of 147,698 foreign visitors enjoyed a holiday on the island.
The British market – Lanzarote´s largest and most important – was up by 5.2% versus February 2009 figures. As a total of 61,236 tourists from the UK arrived on flights to Lanzarote. Providing some positivity for both the Lanzarote property and tourist sectors. But this figure is still down by 16.03% versus February 2008 – when 72,921 British tourists visited the island. Suggesting that the ongoing weakness of sterling against the euro is still retarding full recovery in this market.
Local estate agents and island property portals have noted a marked increase in enquiries during the first quarter of 2010. As property prices on the island have softened considerably. With vendors in need of a quick sale dropping their asking prices – creating genuine bargains for those in a position to buy in the process.
For example a two bed, two bath villa in the Montaña Roja area of Playa Blanca – the islands fastest growing resort – is now on the market at just €179,000. Whilst three bedroom villas in the Costa Papagayo development are now being marketed below the €200,000 barrier for the first time.
With investors currently unable to gain much in the way of a return from the stock market or their savings overseas property investment remains a viable option for those seeking a decent return on their money. And Lanzarote – along with the other Canary Islands – offers a full 12 month rental calendar thanks to their semi topical climate. With a well developed and established tourist industry that still attracted 1.4 million visitors during 2009, despite the economic crisis.
Indeed there are now even more cheap flights to Lanzarote available from key markets such as the UK than there were just a year ago. Thanks to increased competition on this route between Ryanair and easyJet. With the former inaugurating no less than 16 new services to the island as recently as October last year.
Voit Real Estate Services’ San Diego office is reporting an increase in leasing and sales activity across all commercial property types, having completed more than 30 transactions encompassing upwards of 240,000 square-feet for the month of February alone. “Buyers, sellers, landlords and tenants are all gaining confidence that there are good deals to be made right now,” says Chris Wood, Managing Director of Voit Real Estate Services’ San Diego region. “Our team is actively pursuing opportunities for our clients, often representing both sides of transactions. We are seeing the result of rising confidence in the economy and that it is fueling activity for industrial, office and even retail properties.”
Notable transactions include the sale of a Sorrento Mesa industrial building, located at 6975 Flanders Drive in San Diego, Calif. The 14,822 square-foot property sold for $1.65 million. Nick Price and Randall LaChance of Voit Real Estate Services represented the buyer, Todd Tedesco. Dean Asaro of CB Richard Ellis represented the seller, Stanley Claire Trust.
Notable leasing transactions include the 120-month lease of 17,608 of square-foot retail space located at 646 E St. in Chula Vista, Calif. Tracy Clark of Voit Real Estate Services represented the lessor, Bayfront Plaza LLC. The lessee, Dallo & Co., represented themselves.
A 20,650 square-feet industrial property located at 8849 Complex Dr. in San Diego, Calif. was leased to HHKM Company, LLC. Jonathan Boland of Voit Real Estate Services represented the lessor, Kearny Mesa Complex. The lessee was represented by Doug Shinoda of Ashwill Associates.
The Furniture Warehouse signed a lease for 41,488 of industrial space located at 2400-2402 Main St. in Chula Vista, Calif. Arthur Bleier, Benjamin Anderson and Michael Mossmer of Voit Real Estate Services represented the lessor, Alpine Creek Investments, LLC and the lessee.
Voit Real Estate Services, a member of CORFAC International, is one of the largest privately owned, debt-free commercial real estate services firms serving both institutional and private clients in the Western United States. With offices in California, Nevada and Arizona, Voit Real Estates Services can scale asset management, property management, market research, property leasing and sales, financial underwriting, construction and development services to its clients’ individual needs in any market. The firm’s nearly four decades of real estate ownership experience, combined with its asset management platform, provides clients with strategic alternatives, which allow owners of distressed real estate assets to maximize proceeds while minimizing risk.
Voit Real Estate Services was founded in 1971 by Robert D. Voit, who continues to lead the firm. Known for its personal, nimble and responsive service culture, Voit Real Estate Services has developed, acquired or managed more than 40 million square feet of commercial real estate and transacted sales and leases valued in excess of $25 billion. Additional company information is available at www.voitco.com.


