Property Investment News

Cuba the next big property investment destination? How badly will Panama Crash? How much commercial property will default this year? How far will prices fall on the Cote D’Azur? And more importantly – are we there yet?

The current crop of news reports from around the world raises more questions than answers. As prices around the world continue on their downward trend the big one is – are we at bottom yet? To listen to many of the newspapers and estate agencies – we reached bottom last week/last month/yesterday/tomorrow.  There is a word for this and you know what the word is. Having said that, there will be opportunities for those with cash or financing in place – when exactly is anyone’s guess – our guess is end 2010.

One question worth asking is whether the recent friendly overtones by Mr. Obama to Cuba make it worth a look as a real estate investment. Obviously there will be risks involved, but – that is where the big money is.

Some time ago (November 2007), we suggested that Panama real estate was going to crash hard, and got out while the going was good. 18 months later, Panama’s condo market is in “complete meltdown,” according to The New York Times. Good to get it right occasionally. The amount of condos for sale in Panama keeps rising.

According to the Financial Times, there is more than £76 billion in commercial property debt that needs refinancing over the next two years and financing is still hard to come by. With the recession deepening, returns are not what they used to be and no bank in it’s right mind is going to touch a loan on property that has already fallen 40% in value. We expect a lot of commercial property defaults this year, which should depress prices even further. The first of many British property tycoons, Simon Halabi,  is on the brink already.

Shock, horror! Property prices are falling on the Cote D’Azur in France. We have also been calling that one for some time against the backdrop of agents claiming the French Riviera is immune. Anyone who buys this line is out of their mind. Nowhere is immune and according to the FNAIM, pices dropped 6% in the first 3 months of 2009, and sales are down 25%. The Guardian. This does compare favorably to the falls in Paris where sales were down 47% year on year, following a poor 2008.

So, in answer to the question, “Are we there yet?” – Not by a long shot.